- UKR-RUS war and its impact has been accounted for already. Nuclear plant related news which kept market busy on 4-Mar is a thing of past now. This war is not going to end anytime soon and it will be gone in the background as and when people and news channel will lose interest in that
- Crude is spending some time at top and there is a chance that it will also have to come down a bit for consolidation.
- US job market data has beat the expectation but then market is too busy with UKR-RUS till now and ignored that news.
- There are markets in the world e.g., South Africa, which is making new highs in the middle of all these negative news.
- In F&O space, retail, FII and Pro have taken extreme bullish to extreme bearish view, in that order.
- FII selling is on and most of that is being absorbed by DII and retail. Practically speaking, FII selling and other bad news combined, could make the market fall by 13% only. What worse can happen now to push the market to bear territory? Probably, nothing….
Check the nifty weekly chart below.
Check that we are standing near the support and no better place to expect a turn around, even if slow, from here. We can be proved wrong if there is a daily close below this level but my view is that we are going to prove this as a short term bottom and in the face of extreme bearishness in the air, this is the time to buy with a very small SL.
Check the banknifty weekly chart below.
See that here also we are just near a massive support at 34K and if that breaks, we are looking at another 2K points on the downside. So, this also shows a time to go long on banknifty as it is the place of minimum risk with big potential. We can keep a strict SL of one daily close below low of 04-Mar.
Overall, I am neutral to bullish for the week starting 7-March and let’s see how it shapes up. In fact, Monday itself should prove us wrong, if it has to. Do not expect one sided reversal in the market, even if it starts going up as there are lot of shorters still in the game and they can bring the market down at every juncture for a safer exit.