Crude has retreated a lot from recent high though the retail fuel price in India is being increased almost every day giving a chance to rise of inflation.
Global market has remain subdued for yesterday. Being a financial year end, there is a re-balancing act going on in many markets e.g., in US market, there is a re-balancing done where money from equity are moved to bond and vice versa to take care of the portfolio commitments.
India news/concerns:
In F&O space, smart money has taken a rather long position. This is possible for the end of the month but April beginning may see a different trend for India market.
For a change, FII is net buyer in cash and DII, as usual, has brought in cash. DII support is evident given that they need a good NAV to close the financial year.
Technical:
Nifty has given a close above 17440 which was an important resistance. But unless it trades above that level next day also, it is not confirmed. So, today’s close play a very important role.
US market had a rather sideways day. Note that higher levels in S&P 500 is not being supplemented by higher volume which is a sign of weakness. Also, the latest upmove have been too steep and vertical and does not give any confidence that it can hold there just by going sideways.
Nifty option chain, shows straddles at 17500 level though a lot of call writers from that level has started closing position. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
Expectation:
Market likely to open flat. Overall, expecting a flat to positive sentiment in the first half of the day, but second half may show a negative bias. If that happens then it can be actually a prelude of the things to come in the next week.
We need to see whether we can still have another close above 17440 or not. Closing below that level can be negative for the market going forward and recent jump can be taken as a failed breakout.
Cannot see monthly expiry above 17500 for Nifty though. BankNifty is still weaker and very much rangebound and that shows the implicit strains on the economy which market always tries to ignore in short term.
