- Crude has retreated a lot because of the good news coming from war front where a fruitful negotiation is going on.
- Global market has also given a good run yesterday taking into account this good news.
- In F&O space, smart money has taken a rather long position. This is possible for the end of the month but April beginning may see a different trend for India market.
- For a change, FII is not a net seller in cash and DII, as usual, has brought in case. DII support is evident given that they need a good NAV to close the financial year.
- Nifty is about to breakdown the range of 17400 and 17000 on the upside. But unless it gives a close above, followed by trading above that level next day, it is not confirmed.
- US market had again an up day but overall it is still consolidating in a range. Note that higher levels in S&P 500 is not being supplemented by higher volume which is a sign of weakness.
- Nifty option chain, shows straddles at 17300 level still. Surprising that even though there was a sharp recovery in the market yesterday towards the end but still call writing at 17300 level has not reduced a bit. Apart from that 17400 is a good resistance and major resistance lies at 17500. All these levels might be challenged today. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to at least 100 points gap up. Overall, expecting a flat day where in the first half of the day, it should be bullish but market should come down in the second half, if the gap up sustains and there should be a profit booking at the end of the day. Usually, market overreacts on a positive news and this enthusiasm may not sustain going forward and there is a good chance that market may correct in next few days.
- A daily close above 17350 will negate any future move downside and it can be treated as a breakout on the upside, provided there is follow up trading tomorrow above today’s close.
- Cannot see monthly expiry above 17500 for Nifty though.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.