- Crude is giving some technical retracement but that is not sufficient to soothe Indian economy at this moment. It is undergoing consolidation at higher levels and just require a tinker to go above the roof.
- Global market is confused in the face of current war and various positive actions being taken by Fed for high inflation. Apart from that, news of Russia bombing new areas of Ukraine might create some negative sentiment.
- In F&O space, retail is holding bullish position for the monthly expiry whereas FII is having a mixed position and Pro is completely bearish. This is as of 25-Mar EoD.
- Again, FII has sold a big chunk in cash which has been balanced by DII giving the required support to the market.
- Nifty is playing in a range. On the downside it has tested 17050 level too many times and it is unable to sustain above 17300 also. Sooner or later when these two levels break on closing basis, we might have good trending move.
- US market had again an up day but overall it is still consolidating in a range. Note that higher levels in S&P 500 is not being supplemented by higher volume which is a sign of weakness.
- Nifty option chain, shows straddles at 17200 level. Also, 17000 is still a support and major resistance lies at 17500. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open flat to bearish. Overall, expecting a bearish day given that we have spent too much time in a range and time to break out in one direction. Fact is there is no reason for it to go upward and so, obvious choice is breaking 17000 and going towards 16800.
- As per Elliott wave, a wave 5 is pending which may be very fast and furious. Probably, it has just started and gain momentum as we progress downward. This will only be confirmed if we close below 17000 in the monthly expiry.
- Cannot see monthly expiry above 17500 for Nifty though there may be a bullish move towards that every now and then and those will be chances to sell further. Monthly expiry between 16000 and 16500 is more probable one, if 17000 breaks in next two days. In all likelihood, this is the direction it will take.
- For next one week, a daily close above 17350 or daily close below 17100 will take Nifty further towards that direction.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.