USD-INR still hovering just below 80. Sooner or later it will cross and sustain above that magic number. 10 year old US bond rates has retreated a bit, possibly a short term retracement after a long upmove.
US market is waiting for the Powell’s speech in FED symposium scheduled on 26-Aug. Cooling off bond rates (even if just for a day) has revived the US market a bit.
India news/concerns:
In F&O space, FII, Pro have all taken a bit of mixed position whereas retail has taken a bullish position. Next expiry data is yet to be formed fully, though. Another volatile day is in the making.
In the cash segment, FII net buyer and DII is net seller. Overall, volume is still less than normal.
Technical:
Nifty gave a highly volatile expiry but in the process ensured that 17725 is now a good resistance and 17490 as a good support.
Nifty option chain, for the expiry of Sep1 is not yet fully formed and so, does not make sense to interpret that. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
Expectation:
Market likely to open around 50-100 points gap up given that there was a bullish turn around day in US market. If Nifty opens below 17620 then highly likely that it will come down during first half of the day as an after effect of yesterday’s sell off and profit booking from traders who went home bullish yesterday. This will also give an opportunity to sell puts at lower level after the beating they took yesterday.
For any downmove during the day, 17490 will still act as a support and a closing below that will take a good effort or a bad news.
Carrying naked position over the weekend will be dangerous since Powell’s speech will have an effect on Monday and that will come after market hours of India.
