- Crude is giving some technical retracement but that is not sufficient to soothe Indian economy at this moment.
- Global market again jumped up in expectation of Fed taking necessary actions against increasing inflation though we cannot say the same about India/RBI.
- In F&O space, retail is holding bullish position for the monthly expiry whereas FII is having a mixed position and Pro is completely bearish. This is as of 24-Mar EoD.
- Again, FII has sold a big chunk in cash which has been balanced by DII giving the required support to the market.
- Nifty is playing in a range. On the downside it has tested 17050 level too many times and it is unable to sustain above 17250 also. Sooner or later when these two levels break on closing basis, we might have good trending move.
- US market had again an up day but overall it is still consolidating in a range.
- Nifty option chain, though not completely formed for next week, shows straddles at 17200 level. Also, 17000 is still a support but confidence of put writers there are reducing. 17300 is a minor resistance but major one lies in 17500 level. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open bullish around 17300 level. Unlikely to hold that level for long. Today should be overall sideway with little bearishness unless a news turns it around. Market likely to move in the range of 17000 to 17300.
- As per Elliott wave, a wave 5 is pending which may be very fast and furious. Probably, it has just started and gain momentum as we progress downward. This will only be confirmed if we close below 17000 in the monthly expiry.
- Cannot see monthly expiry above 17500 for Nifty though there may be a bullish move towards that every now and then and those will be chances to sell further. Monthly expiry between 16000 and 16500 is more probable one, if 17000 breaks in next two days.
- BankNifty is relative weaker of the two and a breakdown below 35500 will take it down by another 500 points eventually.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.