- Rising crude is still a concern.
- Global market has corrected a bit as there is no news in site to propel further upmove.
- In F&O space, only retail has gone bullish at this level. FII/Pro have rather taken a bearish view for this expiry.
- Again, FII is an overall buyer and DII is net seller although by a very small quantity. Even though the cash transactions were less but India market fell around 200 points from top. So, participants left their holding at a not so competitive price which does not speak good for near future.
- Nifty could not sustain the bullish move of 22-Mar and corrected. As SGX is also showing, we can have a subdued opening on the expiry day.
- US market is taking a pause and probably, consolidate further at this level.
- Nifty option chain shows support at 17000 is reducing which is very meaningful since we closed more than 200 points up. Support is rather building around 16700. If that is the case, traders may be expecting a highly bearish expiry. High resistance is available even at 17300 level and no question of crossing that. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open bearish. Expected to see some downside if 17000 breaks by 11AM. There may be recovery post noon and we may end the day above 17100 anyway. A close below 17000 will set the mood for monthly expiry.
- As per Elliott wave, a wave 5 is pending which may be very fast and furious. Probably, it has just started and gain momentum as we progress downward. This will only be confirmed if we close below 17000 in the monthly expiry.
- Cannot see monthly expiry above 17500 for Nifty though there may be a bullish move towards that every now and then and those will be chances to sell further. Monthly expiry between 16000 and 16500 is more probable one.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.