- Crude price and US treasury yield, both going up. US treasury yield is also showing sign of inversion where the lower duration bond is fetching more interest. This is not a good sign, if sustains for a month or so.
- Global market has again rallied since there was no news and no news is good news.
- In F&O space, all market participants have taken a mixed position. FII/Retail has taken a short term bearish and long term bullish stance. Whereas the Pro has gone bullish on immediate basis but holding all bearish position for monthly expiry.
- Again, FII is an overall buyer in cash though for very small amount but DII has probably run out of funds and has sold more instead.
- Nifty has actually closed the huge gap left on 17-Mar. Once the gap was filled, it immediately started an upmove covering all shorts created on the way. That is why it appeared to be a relentless buying. Also, increased retail fuel price helped Reliance to propel though the bulk rate increase (that was done days ago) has effected it badly and that part was conveniently ignored. In fact, all private fuel retailers in India has suffered badly because of that.
- US market is rallying though fundamentally showing some signs of weakness.
- Nifty option chain shows good resistance built up at 17400 level and beyond. All resistances till that point has not disappeared though. Put writers are also back in business and main support is still at 17000 level. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open flat to bullish. Expected to be a sideways day unless there is a good news to take it up.
- As per Elliott wave, a wave 5 is pending which may be very fast and furious. Probably, it has just started and gain momentum as we progress downward. This will only be confirmed if we close below 17000 in the monthly expiry.
- Cannot see a daily closing above 17500 for Nifty though a more probable level will be 17600. A corrective move after these levels are very much on the cards.
- Not much changes in the level below…
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.