Premarket Nifty Analysis for 22-Mar-2022

Global news/concerns:

Crude price and US treasury yield, both going up. Crude price going up is never good for India and treasury bond yield increase shows that smart money in US is showing more faith in returns from bond market then equity.
After a sharp rebound of last few days, global market is taking a breather or waiting for a news. When all good news about war or its solution is already accounted for, more likely, we will get a bad news. The way it is coming out to be Putin v/s rest, a drastic move by either party is around the corner.

In F&O space, retail has gone bullish (thanks to buy every dip philosophy) and smart money has completely gone bearish.
As anticipated, two days of buying from FII was an exception (the buying was more in midcap space) and FII is back with net selling in cash and this time, DII is not buying either. Ominous signal and a big ‘no bottom’ day is about to come, if this trend continues.

After the gap up of last few days, time to fill up the gaps started. As the F&O data suggests, first stop to downside will be 17090 and then 16750.
US market has taken a breather and looking for direction after huge upmove of last few days. It can go for a range consolidation for few days.
Nifty option chain shows good resistance built up at 17200 level and also beyond that. Put writers are escaping even from 17000 level which shows that confidence towards support is reducing. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.

Market likely to open flat to bearish. Expected to be a bearish day as market usually does not give a chance to late entrants. There are people who have entered in FOMO in last few days and they most likely will not get a chance to escape unhurt.
As per Elliott wave, a wave 5 is pending which may be very fast and furious. Probably, it has just started and gain momentum as we progress downward.
Cannot see a daily closing above 17500 for Nifty though a more probable level will be 17600. A corrective move after these levels are very much on the cards.
Not much changes in the level below…

Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.