- Crude price, after a brief cool down, about to go up again reacting to the ongoing war and drone attacks on Saudi oil fields, a rather regular feature now.
- FED has already declared the expected rate cut and the monkey is off the shoulder now. But, it will take some time to see the impact on inflation.
- Global markets have given a sharp rebound in last few days and all shorts created at last minute were butchered. Such vertical rise is difficult to be maintained when nothing fundamentally has changed overnight.
- In F&O space, no one is overtly bullish or bearish.
- FII has suddenly bought more around 3K crore in cash. It was a pleasant surprise but difficult to see why they will buy around 17200 index when they did not see value around 16K. We have to see whether that bullishness sustains for few days or not.
- For last three sessions, markets had gap up followed by rather sideways movement. So, most of the game is being played overnight and this is not a sign of healthy market. Another such gap up is expected today.
- US market also having an excellent run for last few days but again rise is vertical.
- Nifty option chain shows good resistance built up at 17300 level but market may open well past that. If sustains, then expect another day of short covering. Good support at all levels below but need to see how market reacts after another gap up. One such gap up is expected to be completely sold into because of profit booking, if nothing else. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open bullish. Any dip will be bought into as there are people who are trapped at lower levels and some others are in FOMO. Trend has turned for upside and more people will jump into the boat on any dip after market opens. These traders who will buy the dip now will have to be careful for rest of the week. They may not be given a chance in this expiry to close in profit.
- As per Elliott wave, a wave 5 is pending which may be very fast and furious
- Cannot see a daily closing above 17500 for Nifty though a more probable level will be 17600. A corrective move after these levels are very much on the cards.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.