Premarket Nifty Analysis for 15-Mar-2022

Global news/concerns:

Crude has retreated a lot in last 2/3 days and that is always a good news for India market even though fuel price for domestic market has not been hiked lately.
FED will declare the first rate increase this week.
S&P, both started the day well but could not sustain it by day end and closed down by around 3%

In F&O space, major market participants have taken a mixed view and no one except retail is overtly bullish.
FII has just sold for 174 crore on 14-Mar and DII in fact bought more than that. This is a short breather that market will appreciate but we have to note that unlike earlier month, we are yet to see a day when FII actually bought or did not sell. Practically, FII is still not confident on Indian economy in the short run and this exodus of fund will go on.
Inflation data (CPI) has come out above the expectation of RBI and this might force RBI to go for some rate hike in near future but of course, after FED takes a similar decision first.

On 14-Mar, our market was in a constant upmove throughout the day and people who went short earlier in the expectation of a prolonged war are running for cover now. War will go on but its initial impact is gone now.
US market could not hold the good run yesterday.
Nifty option chain shows good resistance being built as 16900 and also in 17000 and good support at almost every 100 points gap in downside. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.

Market likely to open flat or little bearish. Any dip or gap down in the range of 16700/16670 is a buying opportunity. Trend is for upside and when sentiment is bullish, negative inflation data or such real measures of economy will take a backseat but will make a comeback when big players decide to take the market down in near future. Market has to continuously keep closing above 16850 to remain bullish.
A daily close below 16475 will be bearish for market and can expect a downfall to begin from there.
From medium term perspective, worst for this market is not over yet. We will lows around 14500 till June. This will happen when market will not have any shocking news like war etc to deal with and logic will take precedence over sentiment.
For banknifty, crossing above 35400/35500 is a challenge as of now and it is relatively week. Market overall cannot make a big upmove unless nifty and banknifty both participate in the upward movement.

Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.