Global news/concerns:
- Crude had jumped up on 7-Mar and finally settled down. But it is still too high for anyone’s comfort. This is the single big factor which will hit us.
- No good news from the war front so far
- Dow and S&P, both started the day well but could not sustain it by day end and closed down by around 3%
India news/concerns:
- In F&O space, all major market participants except retail have gone with extreme bearish view. This may be in response to ever increasing crude prices which is not being passed to end customers in India, thanks to impending election. But, it is going to be adjusted.
- FII again sold more than 7000 crore on 07-Mar and DII consumed a big chunk of that again.
- State elections, though do not play a major part as such, but at least, will help people divert attention from war related news.
Technical:
- On 7-Mar, our market opened considerable gap down and after lot of ups and downs finally created a doji. Does not look like story ended here.
- US futures are again slightly bearish after dull run of yesterday.
- Nifty option chain shows heavy resistance at 16000 and good support at 15500. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
Expectation:
- Market likely to open flat or little bullish. Overall, the day should be sideways (from the opening) and it might be an inside candle. If that happens then we can expect a short bounce in near future.
- Breaking the range of 15700-15500 towards downside and sustaining there for even 15 minutes will take the market to test 14500 or 13500 level eventually, if not in this month. This is an important range from now on. If the market stays above this supply zone, then stay mildly bullish but hedged.
- High and low of 07-Mar is very important for future market movement.
- Expecting a very short turn around assuming the low of 7-Mar remains intact.
- Important levels are marked here. Purple, red and yellow are critical, major and minor levels, in that order.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.