Premarket Nifty Analysis for 04-Mar-2022

Global news/concerns:

UKR-RUS war and its impact has been accounted for already. Unless any other country becomes directly involved in it, it is not a market mover any more. The nuclear plant in UKR coming under fire is the latest bad news in the making and market will temporarily react to it too.
Crude is taking some breather after a good run. Consolidation at higher level shows that it can go up further from here.
Dow and S&P, both showed some mild negativity after a great run the day before.

In F&O space, all major market participants except retail have gone with bearish view. This may be in response to ever increasing crude prices which is not being passed to end customers in India, thanks to impending election.
FII again sold more than 6000 crore on 03-Mar and DII consumed a big chunk of that again. DII is basically holding the market in the face of relentless selling but it is unusual to really find value in any nifty 50 stock at that high price. But DII may be doing it to keep the sentiment up for LIC IPO.

On 3-Mar, our market opened considerable gap up but finally everything is sold off and market took support around 16500.
US futures are trading neutral after bearish run of yesterday.
Nifty option chain is yet to take any shape for 10-Mar expiry but 16500 is the straddle area as of now. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.

Market likely to open bearish. Overall, the day should be mildly bullish (from the opening) given that more clarity regarding that nuclear power plant story will develop during the day.
Breaking the range of 16440-16480 towards downside and sustaining there for even 15 minutes will take the market to test 16200 or 16050 level. This is an important range from now on. If the market breaks it and come back up, then go long and stay long. If the market breaks it by a huge margin, then no trade.
High and low of 02-Mar (16678-16478) is very important for future market movement. Break and day closing on any side will give further moves on that side. But, big gap down and gap up are to be avoided.
After a long time, plan to carry calls over weekend as long as Nifty closes above/near yesterday’s close. Expecting positive movements from next week. Anyway, unless buyers are lured into the game, bigger selling cannot come now.
Important levels are marked here. Purple, red and yellow are critical, major and minor levels, in that order.

Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.