Crude has retreated a lot from recent high but technically it is inside a triangle and a breakout on either side will give the real move. This fall in the price is because US has released a huge quantity of crude from their storage to ease implications of sanctions on Russia.
As anticipated the day before, US market has fallen a bit to adjust the bond equity mix of various fund portfolios on the last day of the financial year. This impact should go away on the first day of the new financial year.
India news/concerns:
In F&O space, FII has taken a rather long position along with fresh buy in cash. Pro and retailers, on the other hand, have taken a bearish position.
FII and DII are net buyers in cash, may be, to take care of the NAV commitments and definitely, retail is the one who supplied them the stocks.
Technical:
Though, Nifty has given another close above 17380-17440 zone but it is still not convincing.
US market had a rough day specifically because of the adjustments between equity and bonds that is expected on the last day of the financial year. No inherent weakness in US market otherwise.
Nifty option chain, shows good amount of writing at 17500 on either side. Today’s gap down may finally establish 17500 as a massive resistance for time to come. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
Expectation:
Market likely to open flatto bearish. Either way, there should be initial pressure because of the negative sentiment and some long unwinding. Should recover upto 17500 by the end of the day though closing will not be as high.
Apparently, there have been only mixed type of news from war front. But, be careful of the weekend always till the time war is on. Having a negative outlook for each weekend might do a world of good.
Cannot see nifty sustaining or closing above 17500. Similarly, for BankNifty sustaining or closing above 36700 will be an issue. Any of these should be taken as highly positive outcome. Till these happen, it is sell on rise.
