Thanks to Putin again, global markets which look like has overcome all the uncertainties and ready to move up is back to stable again. His nuclear threat has brought back jitters in market after a good run from global market on 25-Feb.
Crude and gold is about to jump again on 28th. Irrespective of the outcome of war, India will have permanent damage in its balance sheet because of the increase in crude oil price for quite some time.
Dow and S&P which recovered in the trading of 25-Feb is already showing a week opening for market of 28-Feb. But the pace with which news is churning out, you never know where market will be when it finally opens.
India news/concerns:
In F&O space, retailers have gone bearish whereas FII/Pro have mostly taken a mixed to bullish view.
FII again sold around 4500 crore on 25-Feb and DII consumed more than that. Also to be noted that FII is constantly taking bullish stance in stock future. This is sort of indication that we are at fag end of correction barring this passing cloud of war.
Technical:
On 25-Feb, it looked like life is back to normal and some FOMO from retailers/DII was visible. So, gap up and then stay up.
Dow also took a bounce on 25-Feb, which by the morning of 28-Feb looks like to be a dead cat bounce.
Looking at the recovery from Dow, SGX Nifty was showing at least 200 points gap up on 28-Feb till Putin brought back parity with which threat of activating nuclear defense. So, once the SGX opens on 28-Feb, we should be back to where we closed on 25-Feb.
Nifty option chain of next weekly expiry is showing 16500 is the immediate support level and 17000 is the resistance level. There are shorters trapped at 16600 level but they now seemed to have taken the right decision by staying with their shorts. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
Expectation:
Market likely to open flat to bearish. Then news flows during the day will take over. Safest approach will be to stay with the direction for first 15 minutes with strict SL during the day.
Overall expecting a volatile but mildly bullish day today, barring any more surprise news during the day. Market will remain steady after initial hiccups.
Not so long ago, 16850-950 level was a very good support for Nifty. So, it will be a huge resistance from now on. Unless we give a daily close above that level and then next day, trade over it, no bullishness in the market in positional sense.
Do not carry any overnight position today as more clarity/reaction on that nuclear threat will come out during our off hours. If you have made long positions during the day, book, if in profit or carry short positions too to balance things out.
