Premarket Analysis for 03-Mar-2022

Global news/concerns:

Seems, we have learnt to get stabilized with UKR-RUS war going on in the backyard and not expecting it to be any bigger.
Crude is moving upward at breakneck speed. Almost vertical climb in the chart.
Dow and S&P, both had shown good comeback yesterday after FED said that it would go with rate cut as planned. Market had already accounted for that and uncertainty around it is settled now.

In F&O space, all major market participants have gone with bearish to neutral view. This is in response to the news flows of extreme kind. No one can take a confirmed view of the market these days.
FII again sold around 4500 crore on 02-Mar and DII consumed a big chunk of that.

On 2-Mar, our market was under pressure after opening huge gap down but it respected its support around 16500.
US futures are trading neutral after bullish run of yesterday.
Nifty option chain of this expiry is showing 16500 is major nearby support though 16600 is also having good put writing. 16600 has also developed good amount of call writing and an expiry around that is most plausible going by the option chain. Interestingly, there are call writers at 16500 level still now and they can potentially bring the market up with short covering, if market opens flat to gap up. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.

Market likely to open flat to bullish. Overall, the day should be bullish given that some shorters are still stuck at lower levels and being expiry, they have to escape at some point.
Not so long ago, 16850-950 level was a very good support for Nifty. So, it will be a huge resistance from now on. Unless we give a daily close above that level and then next day, trade over it, no bullishness in the market in positional sense.
Expecting Nifty to come back inside the parallel channel today. Given that, substantial amount of smart money has a bearish view, market has to come down sometime during the day , even for a short duration to let these people escape.

Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.