- Nothing new on the ongoing war front except that talks between UKR and RUS broken down as expected. This war can only culminate with UKR current regime going out.
- Crude has reached 8 year high on the back of the war and this is going to be a lingering pain for India. Gold is also constantly on the upmove but currently in a technical resistance zone.
- Dow and S&P, both were down in yesterday’s trading sessions. But futures are running higher without any obvious good news. This has been a trend where these indexes are sold off during trading hours but recovers a bit in after hours, probably to keep other markets positive.
- In F&O space, retailers have gone bearish whereas FII/Pro have mostly taken a mixed to bullish view.
- FII again sold around 4000 crore on 28-Feb and DII consumed more than that.
- On 28-Feb, our market recovered pretty strongly from a big gap down and ended in positive. DII and retail FOMO is at the root of such bounce.
- US futures are trading higher.
- Nifty option chain of next weekly expiry is showing 16500 is the immediate support level and 16800 and 17000 as the resistance levels. Interestingly, there are call writers at 16500 level still now and so, they are hopeful of a lower opening and these are the people who can potentially bring the market up after a gap down. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open bearish, at least, 100 points gap down though currently SGX is showing 200 points gap down. Subsequently, news flows during the day will take over. Today will be a good day to trade with 15 candle breakout.
- Anytime, smart money has closed a day mildly bullish in F&O and next day opens gap down, smart money will make sure to take the market up to change their position. Few stocks like Reliance, TCS will be used to bring the market/index up. This is a regular drill and no need to take that as a bullishness of the market. This happened on 28-Feb and will happen today again.
- Overall expecting a initially volatile but finally bullish day today, barring any more surprise news during the day. Market will remain steady after initial hiccups.
- Not so long ago, 16850-950 level was a very good support for Nifty. So, it will be a huge resistance from now on. Unless we give a daily close above that level and then next day, trade over it, no bullishness in the market in positional sense.
- Unless you are selling far OTM strangles, do not carry overnight position.
Do not forget to refer the monthly view of Nifty. Keep that in background where we can go.