No fresh new news from UKR-RUS front but the damage is still visible in global market.
Gold price is increasing constantly meaning investors are looking for safe heaven. Still consolidating at higher levels and about to give another breakout in a day or two.
Crude is about to give a fresh breakout on the upside even though overall inventory has increased.
India news/concerns:
In F&O space, retails have taken a bullish stance, FII a neutral to bearish stance and Pro, a completely bearish stance just before the monthly expiry.
FII again sold around 3400 crore on 23-Feb and DII consumed most of that. This is happening for last three days that FII sell is more or less consumed by DII, may be, a pressure for a good NAV before financial year closure is already evident or a pressure of keeping a positive vibes in the market before LIC IPO is formally launched.
Technical:
On 23-Feb, Nifty traded mostly positive before FII came and did basket selling. Overall, it was good day of premium eating.
Dow is now hovering around important support of 33K and momentum shows that it is a matter of time before it breaks it, most likely in next two days.
SGX Nifty showing at least 200 points gap down on 24-Feb since US market again gave up badly.
Nifty option chain suggests, 17000 is still the biggest support for this monthly expiry but already writers are going away from there to 16500 level. If market really opens at the level shown then all supports will be of academic interest only and the so called strong support of 16850 will disappear at the beginning itself. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
Expectation:
Market likely to open at least 200-300 points gap down. It is not likely to recover since most of the bullishness is shown by retailers here. The important support of 16850 will be broken right at the beginning and should work as a strong resistance right away. Chances are ripe that we will test 16500 level today or tomorrow. Being a monthly expiry, unthinkable levels may show up on the screen depending on how powerful the trapped long positions are.
There may be late recovery in the second half, if global market supports. But note that all upmove will be eventually be sold off till we have favorable global cues.
Overall expecting a serious bearish day today. Supports around 16840-16860 levels should eventually give up today. Next, we can take some support from the region of 16700 and 16400. For Banknifty, it has managed to take support from lower levels of that parallel channel and that will be again tested and most likely broken today. If banknifty cannot reenter that channel by tomorrow, then eventually we are looking at a fall of 2000 points on positional basis.
