- No new news from UKR-RUS front and so, global market is taking a breather from the recent fall.
- Gold price is increasing constantly meaning investors are looking for safe heaven. Still consolidating at higher levels.
- Crude is also hovering around 93 mark and near its top.
- In F&O space, all major market participants (FII/Pro/Retail) have again taken a mixed position. In a nut shell, this data does not give a proper direction. But, if we look at stock futures, then FII is doing a good accumulation and this gives a rather bullish hope in mid term.
- FII again sold around 3200 crore on 22-Feb and DII consumed more than that. This is happening for last two days that FII sell is completely consumed by DII, may be, a pressure for a good NAV before financial year closure is already evident.
- On 22-Feb, Nifty gave a spectacular recovery, with help from some short covering, after around 300 points of gap down which took it near 200SMA support in daily chart. Interestingly, this is the 8th time, Nifty has taken support around 16850 level in daily chart. Another attempt is most likely to break it. This is the way usually smart money shorter work in the market giving the impression of the invincibility of a level and then one fine night, that support will be gone.
- Dow broke important support of 34K and could not regain it next day. Unless it regains it this week, then it is bound to open lower levels.
- SGX Nifty showing at least 100 points gap up on 23-Feb since US market recovered from lower level though still closed in red like what Nifty did on 22-Feb.
- Nifty option chain suggests, 17000 is still the biggest support for this monthly expiry. Still there are some shorters trapped in 17000 level who will have to get out if market opens near 17200 level as suggested by SGX. Most of the fresh put writing happened at 16900 level whereas call writing took place at 17400 level. OI chain analysis can be done in live market using sites like tradingtick or opstra.
- Market likely to open at least 100 points gap up. Since shorts are trapped and they are most likely Pros, chances are that market will come down a bit to 17100 level after opening to give the shorters a chance to come out. Some good short covering expected during the day unless there is a sudden bad news. This will be that sort of day which might remove all bearishness from market. though temporarily. Still there will be a twist in the tale of this expiry.
- In 1 hour chart, as expected, we are taking support from either 17090 or from 16850. Between these two levels, it is a no trade zone.
- Overall expecting bullishness of 22-Feb to continue today. We will face resistance in the area of 17235-17250 zone. Once that is crossed, technically, we can test 17480 level too but that may not be today itself. Support is still around 17050-17100 and 16840-16860.
For Banknifty, it has managed to take support from lower levels of that parallel channel and so, expectation is that it should at least test middle of that channel but then news may play a spoilsport.