US market had a roller coaster ride on previous day but mostly recovered at end of day. Future is trading in green but that usually is not a confirmed sign of reversal.
Ukraine Russia unrest concern is still looming large but there is news that Ukraine is trying to pacify it
US 10 years bond yield is still near top, though retreated a bit in last two days. That is usually a measure of upcoming concern in stock market stability.
Oil prices over the roof. WTI crude touching levels of 2014 once more. Not a good news for India market. The UKR-RUS conflict is also adding fuel here.
Breakout in gold price is sustaining showing investors are looking for a safe heaven.
India news/concerns:
Major bank stocks corrected because of ABG Shipyard fraud case. This news seems to have already played out in a single day.
FII sold more than 4000 crore on 14-Feb and DII absorbed half of it. Seems, retailers absorbed other half of it. That is a concern in disguise when retailers absorb this much stock even when the market is around 10% below its all time high value.
Technical:
On 14-Feb, India market gave a big single day fall even though there was some good resistance near 16950 level. Obviously, market is nearing a bounce back after such a fall. But those corrections should be used for exiting long positions, if any. These are just corrective moves.
The F&O data post market hours of 14-Feb tells us that except retailers all other market participants still have bearish position even after such a big single day fall.
US market is still showing signs of volatility.
SGX Nifty closed the night before with some gains after closing of Indian market but that is not very indicative of things to come.
Put call ratio suggesting some imminent bounce. Also, Nifty is around 200 DMA which is a psychological support, usually.
Expectation:
Market may open around 50 to 100 points gap up and then can make a short term top to adjust the PCR during the day. This should be a corrective move before the next moves downward.
Not expecting market sentiment to turn around bullish anytime soon. Rather, all up move will be sold off.
Level wise, unless 17050 is crossed in upside and sustained, no bullish view is supported.
We have broken down the trendline support too fast and already closed below 16850. Another visit to that level will open up the gate for 16400, all other small supports in between will not matter much.
H&S in Nifty weekly, confirmation needed this week
Trendline in day chart broken. May work as resistance now
